Uncertainty threat to $2.5 trillion global construction activity

Persistent market volatility is set to derail an estimated $2.5 trillion in global construction activity in 2025, according to new research from consultancy firm Currie & Brown. The findings, drawn from a survey of over 1,000 global construction leaders, underscore the scale of disruption facing the industry.

The report, Building certainty in an era of relentless change, highlights how project cancellations, cost overruns, and delays are becoming increasingly common amid economic and supply chain uncertainty. On average, respondents reported losing 13.7% of their project pipelines over the past year, which is a financial impact equivalent to $2.1 billion per organisation.

When applied across global construction, that shortfall amounts to $2.5 trillion - more than the GDP of Italy and nearly double the combined annual revenue of Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft.

Key findings include:

* 32% of projects were descoped

* 29% were delayed

* 25% were cancelled outright

Only 20% of respondents said they were fully confident in their ability to deliver projects within budget under current conditions.

The research identifies four primary risk drivers: material cost inflation, energy price volatility, supply chain disruption, and labour shortages. These issues show no signs of easing, with 61% of leaders expecting material costs to rise further and 56% predicting worsening energy price instability over the next two years.

Dr Alan Manuel, Group CEO of Currie & Brown, said the current challenges extend beyond cyclical market fluctuations. “In over 40 years in the industry, I’ve not seen such a persistently uncertain market,” he said.

“Systemic issues such as outdated procurement practices, misaligned objectives, and a culture of commencing billion-dollar projects without complete designs are embedding risk into project delivery.”

In response, Currie & Brown has launched a new Construction Certainty Index designed to measure industry confidence and track risk exposure across global markets. The index aims to provide a forward-looking benchmark for project resilience.

The report outlines four strategic focus areas to help organisations mitigate risk:

* Technology: adopt technology with a clear purpose.

* Data: improve data quality, integration, and contextual understanding.

* People: anticipate skill needs and foster long-term workforce partnerships.

* Mindset: embrace agility and proactive risk management.

Currie & Brown is calling for a coordinated response involving government, clients, and industry partners to tackle the structural issues contributing to prolonged uncertainty. Without systemic change, the firm warns, the construction sector risks further economic drag and long-term capability loss.